The World Bank has been back and forth on its prediction for Nigeria’s economy since the start of the year almost in the same way economic activities in the country have been very uncertain no thanks to the heavily anticipated election year. The latest revision sets Nigeria’s growth rate at 2.1% meaning that over a year the economy would have only grown by 0.17%.
Putting the figures in perspective
- Nigeria’s predicted 2.1% growth rate is lower than the continent’s growth rate of 2.8%
- The downgrade from 2.2% growth rate earlier predicted implies that economic activities are expected to slow down later on in the year
- While CBN is in agreement with World Bank over this new figure, IMF still holds on to its prediction of 2.2% growth rate
Nigeria is in it with some other big names
Angola and South Africa find themselves in similar positions. The June 2019 edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Flagship Report reveals that slower-than-expected mining and oil production, combined with domestic policy uncertainties have delayed the growth recovery in some of the largest commodity exporters in Sub-Saharan Africa (Angola, Nigeria, South Africa).
Economic reforms by the new administration are expected to pull up South Africa’s economy from the mud. Continued policy uncertainty and rolling power blackouts have slowed economic activity in the first half of 2019.
The others seem to be doing better
Besides Angola, Nigeria and South Africa, The World Bank expects more robust growth across other African countries in 2019.
- Angola is expected to emerge from three years of contraction
- Cameroon and Ghana’s investment in new oil and natural gas capacity will aid in growth recovery in the region
- Rise in mining production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea will spur growth
- Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda will record growth due to the rise in the private sector’s participation.